ESPN recently published a list of “expert” predictions for Superbowl 50. Seventy writers, analysts, and pundits predicted the final score of the upcoming game between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos. I thought it might be fun to crowdsource a single prediction from this group of experts.
Below is a histogram showing the predicted difference between Carolina’s score and Denver’s score. The distribution looks fairly normal (symmetric and unimodal).
The average difference is 6.15 points, with a standard deviation of 7.1 points. Since we are looking at Carolina’s score – Denver’s score, these predictors clearly favor Carolina to win, by nearly a touchdown.
This second histogram shows the predicted total points scored in the game. The average is 44 points, with a standard deviation of 5.7 points.
Combining the two statistics, let’s say that the group of ESPN experts predict a final score of Carolina 25 – Denver 19. We’ll find out just how good their predictions are tomorrow!
[See the full list of ESPN expert predictions here.]