World Cup Predictions
I went over to ESPN and tallied up the total number of goals in this year’s World Cup: I counted 139 goals in 62 matches (margin of error: +/- 3 goals?), for an average of 2.24 goals per match. That’s total. For both teams. Think about that.
Will the final be similar? The Netherlands has averaged 2 goals per game (12 goals in 6 games) over the first 6 games of the WC, and Spain has averaged 1.16 goals per game (7 goals in 6 games). So maybe the final will see closer to 3.16 total goals?
It might be important to also consider these teams goals against average: the Netherlands has conceded .83 goals per game (5 goals in 6 games), and Spain has only allowed .33 goals per game (2 goals in 6 games). This simplistic analysis suggests something around 1.16 goals in tomorrow’s final.
My prediction–two total goals. If I were you I’d take the under.
3 Comments
kelly honner · July 10, 2010 at 5:45 pm
How did you establish your margin of error?
mrhonner · July 10, 2010 at 6:40 pm
As I looked over the scores and tallied up the goals, there were three times where my brain temporarily locked up. I figured each one of those brain-freezes might have cost me a goal.
Nikita Zolotykh · July 11, 2010 at 2:57 pm
Well, while the game is still going on and it’s still 0-0, let me just add:
The Octopus predicted Spain to win, so that 1 goal would be for Spain. (as I am hoping too)
And, well applied analysis in the post!