As the Detroit Lions prepare for their first compelling Thanksgiving Day game in 15 years, I thought I would revisit my pre-season hypothesis that scoring in the NFL would be down in 2011 due to the new kickoff rule.
A quick recap of my argument: the new kickoff rule will result in more touchbacks, which will reduce overall starting field position, which will result in fewer points being scored. An elementary analysis suggested that per-game scoring would be down by about 2 points per game.
The first two weeks of the season saw record-setting offensive production: scoring was actually up by 2.5 points per game! But now, with more than half the 2011 NFL season in the books, the average points-per-game is 44.07. During the 2010 NFL season, the average points-per-game was around 44.16.
A TV analyst recently suggested that scoring decreases as the season progresses, due to factors like weather and injury. Not only does this give me another idea for a math and sports analysis, it also gives me hope that perhaps my pre-season prediction may still come true!
Related Posts
- Will Scoring Decrease Under the New NFL Kickoff Rule?
- Kickoffs, Touchbacks, and Scoring in the NFL
- The Year in NFL Scoring
- NFL Overtime Rules and Strategy
- NFL Draft Math
