Black Friday Mathematics

I thought I’d do a little analytic research on Black Friday spending, so I punched up Wolfram Alpha to see what it could tell me.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=average+consumer+spending+U.S.

Although W|A doesn’t seem to have economic data tied to the specific date, it shows that retail spending in the U.S. is about $386 billion per month, or around $13 billion per day.

A report from Businessweek claims that about $20 billion was spent last year on Black Friday.  This suggests that around $7 billion more is being spent today!

The increase may be even greater.  In its data, Wolfram Alpha includes spending in some categories (motor vehicle and parts dealers–$65.68 billion per month;  food and beverage stores–$51.65 billion per month) that might not be counted as “holiday spending.”   There may be a more targeted metric for measuring the success of Black Friday; researching, or creating, this measure could be a fun little project.

One nice little feature from Wolfram Alpha was the graph of consumer spending.  At the end of each calendar year, there is a sudden spike followed by a steep drop.  It’s not too hard to tell the accompanying story for that data!

More on NFL Scoring

lions-johnsonAs the Detroit Lions prepare for their first compelling Thanksgiving Day game in 15 years, I thought I would revisit my pre-season hypothesis that scoring in the NFL would be down in 2011 due to the new kickoff rule.

A quick recap of my argument:  the new kickoff rule will result in more touchbacks, which will reduce overall starting field position, which will result in fewer points being scored.  An elementary analysis suggested that per-game scoring would be down by about 2 points per game.

The first two weeks of the season saw record-setting offensive production:  scoring was actually up by 2.5 points per game!  But now, with more than half the 2011 NFL season in the books, the average points-per-game is 44.07.  During the 2010 NFL season, the average points-per-game was around 44.16.

A TV analyst recently suggested that scoring decreases as the season progresses, due to factors like weather and injury.  Not only does this give me another idea for a math and sports analysis, it also gives me hope that perhaps my pre-season prediction may still come true!

Related Posts

 

4.74 Degrees of Separation

This story in the New York Times summarizes a recently published study about interconnectedness on Facebook.

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/22/technology/between-you-and-me-4-74-degrees.htmlhttp://goo.gl/sqIVT

A computational analysis of the 721 million worldwide Facebook users shows that the average distance between two people is about 4.74 “friends”.   Roughly speaking, given anyone in the world on Facebook, a friend of your friend is likely to be friends with a friend of their friend.

An amazing result!  And a cool application of graph and network theory.  Now the questions becomes “What can we do with this knowledge?”

Math Quiz: NYT Learning Network

Through Math for America, I am part of an on-going collaboration with the New York Times Learning Network.  My latest contribution, a Test Yourself quiz-question, can be found here:

https://learning.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/21/test-yourself-math-nov-21-2011/

This problem is related to the number of U.S. college students graduating with degrees in engineering.  How many of these graduates are women?

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