Math Lesson: Predicting the Vote

newspaperI am very excited to have my first Lesson Plan published by the New York Times Learning Network.  I wrote a mathematics lesson built around profiling the upcoming presidenital election, using data and analysis from Nate Silver’s 538 Blog at the Times.

The lesson is titled “Predicting the Vote: Analyzing Election Data”, and can be found here:

http://learning.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/18/predicting-the-vote-analyzing-election-data/

Trying to write a lesson plan for general use was much more challenging than I imagined, but it was an interesting and educational experience for me.  Hopefully it will produce some interesting educational experiences for others.

The First Word Calculator

word calculatorThis is a pretty awesome widget from the folks at Wolfram Alpha:  a word calculator!

http://blog.wolframalpha.com/2010/10/15/celebrating-dictionary-day-with-new-word-data/

It does the basic things you’d expect, like give you definitions, pronunciations, synonyms, and the like.  But it also gives you cool things like word frequency (“frequency” is the 3209th most common word) and hyphenations (me-di-e-val has 8 letters and 4 syllables)

And, when I typed my name in, I learned that 599,125 people are named Patrick, and our most common age is 46.

WolframAlpha’s mission is to make the world’s information computable–not just searchable.   I guess the lesson here is that everything is computable in some way.

An Impossible Construction

I enjoy offering impossible problems to students as extra credit, although I usually don’t tell them the problems are impossible.  Such tasks usually engage them, confuse them, and make them suspicious of me.  It’s a win-win-win.

While discussing some three-dimensional geometry, I offered extra credit to anyone who could build a model of a Klein bottle.  The Klein bottle is a hard-to-imagine surface that has neither an inside nor an outside.  It’s like a tube where one end meets the other and makes a seal, but somehow got turned inside out in the process.  If you are familiar with the Mobius strip, the Klein bottle is basically a higher-dimensional Mobius strip.

One reason that the Klein bottle is hard to visualize is that it can’t be observed in three dimensions:  it needs a fourth dimension in order to see it turn itself inside-out.  This is analogous to the standard construction of the Mobius strip:  we take a long strip of paper, give one end a half-twist, and tape the ends together.  We think of the paper itself as being 2-dimensional, but we need that third dimension to twist through.

So, I was pretty impressed with the student who made this.

Klein Bottle
Not bad at all, for someone who is dimensionally challenged.  Here’s a nice representation for comparison, although it’s still a cheat.  The Klein bottle doesn’t really intersect itself.

Klein bottle graph

A nice example of impossibly creative student work!

Who Tests the Testers?

bell curveIt’s tricky business, curving state exams.

An audit by Harvard researchers compared student results on NY State exams (Regents, et al) with corresponding national exams, and it seems that much of the “progress” made by NY students over the past few years was probably illusory.

There are several telling statistics in the report, but none clearer than this:  in 2007, the minimum score on the NY state math exam corresponded to the 36th percentile nationwide.  In 2009, the minimum score on the NY state math exam corresponded to the 19th percentile nationwide.  This effectively defined proficiency as “do better than 19 percent of students across the country”.

In theory, curves for tests can drop if exams get harder, but no one with any knowledge of NY State math exams would make that argument.  Indeed, these exams have been getting easier and easier to pass.  For example, to pass the Integrated Algebra Regents Exam in 2009, a student only needed 30 raw points out of 88.  A passing score of 34% seems pretty low to begin with, but keep in mind that a student guessing randomly on the multiple choice questions alone should get about 1/4 of the questions right, which amounts to 15 points.  Halfway to proficiency.

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