Nate Silver, of 538 fame, made his name using advanced statistical modeling techniques to analyze and project political elections. Apparently, one of his side projects is developing similar strategies for predicting Oscar winners.
http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/4-rules-to-win-your-oscar-pool/
Silver aggregates the results of other awards, intra-Oscar award correlation, anti-comedy bias , and, perhaps, a touch of gut feeling to make his predictions.
We’ll see if The King’s Speech does as well as he thinks!
